Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.285459 0.334694 0.388366 0.451022 0.521957 0.599563 0.690678
2025-04-27 0.203672 0.264002 0.335222 0.424788 0.533643 0.660842 0.819843
2025-05-04 0.151385 0.216596 0.299748 0.411904 0.557368 0.737644 0.975675
2025-05-11 0.112318 0.177989 0.268553 0.399469 0.580245 0.817053 1.145936
2025-05-18 0.077618 0.137678 0.227836 0.368020 0.574446 0.860303 1.277533
2025-05-25 0.052016 0.104341 0.190339 0.334552 0.561153 0.892634 1.400306
2025-06-01 0.037096 0.084211 0.168859 0.321424 0.576057 0.967598 1.593590
2025-06-08 0.026053 0.067498 0.149202 0.307615 0.588239 1.041072 1.795274
2025-06-15 0.019868 0.058378 0.141141 0.312546 0.632570 1.171003 2.099583
2025-06-22 0.013220 0.045310 0.121741 0.292576 0.631035 1.227457 2.295957
2025-06-29 0.009016 0.036202 0.107928 0.280500 0.642060 1.307035 2.540384
2025-07-06 0.005975 0.028517 0.094784 0.266713 0.647637 1.378283 2.779714
2025-07-13 0.004246 0.024044 0.088577 0.268126 0.686584 1.519796 3.165812
2025-07-20 0.002860 0.019638 0.080815 0.264034 0.713901 1.644243 3.537255
2025-07-27 0.001999 0.016629 0.076014 0.266450 0.756722 1.805574 3.996224
2025-08-03 0.001363 0.013951 0.071067 0.267302 0.796714 1.967301 4.474549
2025-08-10 0.000789 0.010600 0.061729 0.252625 0.796849 2.047172 4.803722
2025-08-17 0.000418 0.007754 0.052362 0.234473 0.784555 2.099205 5.084098
2025-08-24 0.000247 0.006200 0.047616 0.229941 0.807575 2.233022 5.546851
2025-08-31 0.000138 0.004876 0.042913 0.223868 0.825372 2.357715 6.003794
2025-09-07 0.000091 0.004282 0.041870 0.231455 0.884448 2.587111 6.707269
2025-09-14 0.000042 0.003171 0.036390 0.219061 0.881509 2.667316 7.093242
2025-09-21 0.000020 0.002441 0.032603 0.212177 0.894263 2.788109 7.581423